8 Comments
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Walter Haugen's avatar

It is a mistake to assume the stock market is rational. Otherwise the traders wouldn't talk about the "animal spirits." Better to talk about insider information and riding on the coattails of the insiders.

Harry Melandri's avatar

"Better to talk about insider information and riding on the coattails of the insiders". So we agree on this, but I would argue its perfectly consistent with a "rational" market. Still , I might be a little grouchy that the Administration has caught me out several times with their "messaging".

Jimbo's avatar

The trolling is really quite something. This one came into my feed a few days ago:

https://youtu.be/hM8k8NaJTjQ?si=oa0sniERtk2vUldE

I wonder if Pump watches these... 🙃

Harry Melandri's avatar

I hadn't heard "Pump" before. I did notice that even the BBC ran a piece on the curious volume bumps ahead of major WH announcements. I'm so old I remember trading defaulted Soviet debt during the London Club negotiations. There was a little Swiss private bank that was an uncanny call on the twists and turns of the negotiation. I always imagined it was Misha 2% (market nickname for Mikhail Kasyanov, Ru FinMin) who was phoning in orders.

Jimbo's avatar

You need to check out Keith McCullough (Mucca) of Hedgeye Risk Management's Twitter feed, Harry. I suspect you've probably heard of Hedgeye. I must confess to being a subscriber, and 'Pump' is Keith's nickname for Trump; precisely for the reasons you've described. I must confess to liking it and liberally plagiarising its use in my own commentary.

MOConservative's avatar

Iran must deal;(or die) as US blockade will starve Iran economically and de facto destroy (shut down) their oil capabilities ….this is not a wish it is a fact

MOConservative's avatar

How long do you believe Irans neighbors will tolerate Iranian attacks …they already want the US and Israeli to “finish the job”

Harry Melandri's avatar

I don't think they are "tolerating" Iranian attacks at all. They want regime change just as much as the US or Israel. But neither do they want their desalination plants targeted. A difficult balancing act. Particularly interesting to see which way the UAE has chosen to go.